Changing Perceptions on Iraq

Des Browne and David Miliband have an interesting take on the anti-government insurgency in southern Iraq. There isn’t one. There is “intense political competition between longstanding rival Shiite movements, too often spilling over into violence” but there is no insurgency, and very little sign of al Qaeda. A fine point maybe but they should know. Browne is defense secretary and Miliband foreign secretary for the UK which of course has coalition responsibility for the region. British commanders expect to transfer full security control in Basra province to Iraqi authorities sometime in the next few months. They already did that with three other provinces. So far American forces have transferred four and plan to take that step in a fifth soon. Together they will make up half the total of 18 provinces in the country. That’s the best measure of progress, a government strong enough and stable enough to take responsibility for its own security. One of the reasons I continue to be optimistic regarding the ultimate outcome in Iraq is that conditions on the ground are never as bad as the picture painted in the American press. Over the past year media declarations of defeat reached a peak just as it was becoming apparent that internal Iraqi security forces were beginning to gel. Just over a month ago senate democrats staged their disgraceful all night attempt to force an early withdrawal. A week later arm chair generals at the Dallas Morning News devoted their entire editorial space to their own “Plan B.” Their idea is to pull American troops into secure bases, watch the borders, and leave Iraqis alone to slaughter each other. But then a funny thing happened. We began to see more and more positive commentary and not just from British ministers with policies to defend. Sunni tribal leaders in some of the most al Qaeda friendly areas have been turning on terrorists and cooperating instead with American and government forces. Police and army recruiting are up. Corruption is down. Local mayors are taking control. People are returning to homes they left a few months ago. Even a number of prominent democrats here have been acknowledging progress on security. Of the leading presidential candidates only Barack Obama advocates abandoning Iraq completely. Of course all of this could turn again but for now the tone of criticism has shifted perceptibly toward the apparent lack of resolution to major political issues dividing Iraqis. Now we are measuring benchmarks. That is a very different debate. Words like defeat and debacle just don’t have the same ring to them against the backdrop of an Iraq that is steadily if slowly beginning to stand on its own. That’s what’s happening. Looked at over the twelve months from June of 2006 to 2007 the progression has been remarkable and that doesn’t account for the events of this summer. There is still plenty of bad news and no shortage of cynics to point it out. I can’t imagine that changing any time soon. Still, security has always been the critical factor. Tough political compromise may be impossible in a climate of fear and the question of just how committed Americans are has been at the root of the most difficult sources of instability. Nobody wants to be caught betting on the wrong horse when so much is at stake personally. But as Iraqi authorities take control and prove able to keep it, the issue of American stamina becomes less relevant. Winston Churchill once said of Iraq the place was ungovernable. If he meant Westerners couldn’t govern he was right, but today we want nothing more than for Iraqis to govern themselves responsibly. There is no reason it can’t happen.