Waning Militancy
The front page of today’s Dallas Morning News contains no mention of war, suicide bombings, or random acts of violence. For years after 911 such a thing would have been a rarity but it is now increasingly common for the Long War to be relegated to less prominent coverage in interior sections of the paper. Has Samuel Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations peaked and begun to fade? I think it has.
Professor Huntington wrote his famous essay in 1993, a time when wars and insurrections were in progress, breaking out, or recently ended on every continent. Most of them involved people with differing cultures based at least in part on religious affiliation or language, and not always with Muslims on one side. There were fights between Armenians and Azerbaijanis, Irish Catholics and Protestants, and terrible three way campaigns of ethnic cleansing among Catholics, Orthodox Christians, and Muslims in what had been Yugoslavia. Within a decade the Clash had pretty much settled out into one between Muslims and their neighbors. Today even Muslims are in conflict mostly with each other and Clash of Civilizations no longer seems the appropriate term.
There may be an occasional terrorist attack in Muslim Southeast Asia but nobody is about to go to war there. Yasser Arafat is dead and Palestinians are caught up in disputes between rival factions. I seldom see references to Intifada any more. Rebels in Chechnya are on the run and that awful place is no longer a popular destination for would be martyrs. Kashmir is calm. Pakistanis are more interested in maintaining internal order than in confrontation with India. Even fragile Lebanon may be climbing slowly back to its feet. Syrian and Israeli troops have all gone home and government forces seem determined not to allow extremists to drive the country back into chaos.
Internal security forces in Iraq and Afghanistan are gaining traction at an increased pace and although it does seem likely that American troops will be on the scene for several more years at least, it does not appear in the cards for either Baath party Fascists or the Taliban to return to power. Stable secular governments in those two places will take a lot of wind out of the sails of zealots who believe God is leading them to victory. The triumph of the Afghan Mujahideen and victory over one super power gave that idea credence. More recent Taliban and al-Quaida failures against another super power call it into question. Image is everything.
I don’t mean to suggest the Long War is over by any means. Old conflicts can be rekindled. Some of them are still simmering. After eight decades of hatred and violence between Arabs and Jews it would be wishful thinking to believe that issue will simply subside any time soon. There is still a lot of vituperative being thrown around from the world's Muslim media outlets, schools, and Mosques. That won’t stop overnight either. A lot could still go wrong in Iraq. Pakistan is a potential nightmare. So is Iran. American politics could take a serious wrong turn and jump start the Jihadists all over again.
My sense however is that long term trends are positive. Places that were hot spots 15 years ago have cooled. There aren’t so many new ones. Terrorists have little to show for their efforts. Prosperity is growing in more and more places around the world and that provides a compelling case for maintaining order. It is not good to get into an armed fight with your trading partners. This is a Long War. It need not be a never ending war.
Many will take issue with a number of assertions in this essay. I will try to fortify my case in subsequent pieces.
Professor Huntington wrote his famous essay in 1993, a time when wars and insurrections were in progress, breaking out, or recently ended on every continent. Most of them involved people with differing cultures based at least in part on religious affiliation or language, and not always with Muslims on one side. There were fights between Armenians and Azerbaijanis, Irish Catholics and Protestants, and terrible three way campaigns of ethnic cleansing among Catholics, Orthodox Christians, and Muslims in what had been Yugoslavia. Within a decade the Clash had pretty much settled out into one between Muslims and their neighbors. Today even Muslims are in conflict mostly with each other and Clash of Civilizations no longer seems the appropriate term.
There may be an occasional terrorist attack in Muslim Southeast Asia but nobody is about to go to war there. Yasser Arafat is dead and Palestinians are caught up in disputes between rival factions. I seldom see references to Intifada any more. Rebels in Chechnya are on the run and that awful place is no longer a popular destination for would be martyrs. Kashmir is calm. Pakistanis are more interested in maintaining internal order than in confrontation with India. Even fragile Lebanon may be climbing slowly back to its feet. Syrian and Israeli troops have all gone home and government forces seem determined not to allow extremists to drive the country back into chaos.
Internal security forces in Iraq and Afghanistan are gaining traction at an increased pace and although it does seem likely that American troops will be on the scene for several more years at least, it does not appear in the cards for either Baath party Fascists or the Taliban to return to power. Stable secular governments in those two places will take a lot of wind out of the sails of zealots who believe God is leading them to victory. The triumph of the Afghan Mujahideen and victory over one super power gave that idea credence. More recent Taliban and al-Quaida failures against another super power call it into question. Image is everything.
I don’t mean to suggest the Long War is over by any means. Old conflicts can be rekindled. Some of them are still simmering. After eight decades of hatred and violence between Arabs and Jews it would be wishful thinking to believe that issue will simply subside any time soon. There is still a lot of vituperative being thrown around from the world's Muslim media outlets, schools, and Mosques. That won’t stop overnight either. A lot could still go wrong in Iraq. Pakistan is a potential nightmare. So is Iran. American politics could take a serious wrong turn and jump start the Jihadists all over again.
My sense however is that long term trends are positive. Places that were hot spots 15 years ago have cooled. There aren’t so many new ones. Terrorists have little to show for their efforts. Prosperity is growing in more and more places around the world and that provides a compelling case for maintaining order. It is not good to get into an armed fight with your trading partners. This is a Long War. It need not be a never ending war.
Many will take issue with a number of assertions in this essay. I will try to fortify my case in subsequent pieces.
posted by Onfoot at 12:14 PM
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