Some Folks Never Learn
A Dallas Morning News editorial today includes a remark that the relative calm we are now seeing in Iraq “…reaffirms the wisdom that once in a hole, stop digging. The Bush administration finally pivoted with its surge strategy in 2007…” The comment is as gross a mischaracterization of what happened in Iraq over the last two years as it is graceless. The surge represented not a Bush pivot but a doubling down. Critics including the DMN saw it as a stubborn refusal to admit the war was lost. Fortunately Iraqis saw it as renewed commitment and it was they who pivoted. Sunnis turned on Al Qaeda and Shiites got their thuggish militias under control. It was a pivot all right, in a war many in the American media (and some political elites I’m sad to say) were shamelessly attempting to turn into a debacle.
The DMN advocated their own “plan B” that would have almost certainly have produced said debacle. It called essentially for pulling American troops back into their bases and watching the borders from the air while letting Iraqis slaughter each other to their hearts’ content. Joe Bidden, with his much touted foreign policy expertise, contended that Iraqi ethnic groups could never learn to live together and advocated an American imposed partition. That was a strategy that would have led to one of the great humanitarian catastrophes of last fifty years. Barack Obama just wanted out and damn the consequences. One can only imagine the boost in morale Muslim extremists would have gotten from that. That none of this happened is a tribute to Mr. Bush’s resolve. I suspect historians will judge him a bit more kindly than the DMN does.
It’s worth remembering what Iraqi insurgents were trying to accomplish. Al Qaeda saw an opportunity to defeat a super power, as Afghan Mujahideen had a generation earlier. They thought Americans would soon tire of the chaos and leave. A lesser man than George Bush might well have proved them right. Shiite militias were motivated by a combination of power, greed, and revenge. Calmer heads among them including Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani eventually prevailed. Sistani is no friend of the United States but he never liked the idea of Muslims running around killing each other. With the surge and switched allegiances among Iraqis, improving security began to build on itself and make possible the political compromises that may ultimately produce the peaceful Iraq most of us would like to see. At this point that likely includes Messers Obama and Biden. They wouldn’t want to see things go south on their watch.
Much will be written about how all this came about but nobody is likely to study it more closely than the military. They need to get this right. There is one critical lesson to be learned. No foreign insurgency is likely to be defeated as long as countering it is perceived as a predominantly American operation. The turning point in Iraq came when Iraqis began taking responsibility for their own security. Americans can celebrate victory only when they can leave, and leave behind a stable government capable of maintaining order and defending itself. That was always the strategy. It’s been right there on the White House web site since November, 2005. The surge didn’t change that.
The same will be true in Afghanistan, although we’re going to need some serious cooperation from Pakistan. There are some encouraging signs. Pakistan seems to be taking things more seriously and Afghan insurgents are reverting to more primitive tactics as their casualties mount. The key remains however in an emerging Afghan security force. That’s one lesson we had better have learned.
The DMN advocated their own “plan B” that would have almost certainly have produced said debacle. It called essentially for pulling American troops back into their bases and watching the borders from the air while letting Iraqis slaughter each other to their hearts’ content. Joe Bidden, with his much touted foreign policy expertise, contended that Iraqi ethnic groups could never learn to live together and advocated an American imposed partition. That was a strategy that would have led to one of the great humanitarian catastrophes of last fifty years. Barack Obama just wanted out and damn the consequences. One can only imagine the boost in morale Muslim extremists would have gotten from that. That none of this happened is a tribute to Mr. Bush’s resolve. I suspect historians will judge him a bit more kindly than the DMN does.
It’s worth remembering what Iraqi insurgents were trying to accomplish. Al Qaeda saw an opportunity to defeat a super power, as Afghan Mujahideen had a generation earlier. They thought Americans would soon tire of the chaos and leave. A lesser man than George Bush might well have proved them right. Shiite militias were motivated by a combination of power, greed, and revenge. Calmer heads among them including Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani eventually prevailed. Sistani is no friend of the United States but he never liked the idea of Muslims running around killing each other. With the surge and switched allegiances among Iraqis, improving security began to build on itself and make possible the political compromises that may ultimately produce the peaceful Iraq most of us would like to see. At this point that likely includes Messers Obama and Biden. They wouldn’t want to see things go south on their watch.
Much will be written about how all this came about but nobody is likely to study it more closely than the military. They need to get this right. There is one critical lesson to be learned. No foreign insurgency is likely to be defeated as long as countering it is perceived as a predominantly American operation. The turning point in Iraq came when Iraqis began taking responsibility for their own security. Americans can celebrate victory only when they can leave, and leave behind a stable government capable of maintaining order and defending itself. That was always the strategy. It’s been right there on the White House web site since November, 2005. The surge didn’t change that.
The same will be true in Afghanistan, although we’re going to need some serious cooperation from Pakistan. There are some encouraging signs. Pakistan seems to be taking things more seriously and Afghan insurgents are reverting to more primitive tactics as their casualties mount. The key remains however in an emerging Afghan security force. That’s one lesson we had better have learned.
posted by Onfoot at 9:52 AM
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