Vladimir the Great?
The Russians are scaring me. Most pundits pretty much dismiss the idea that the invasion of Georgia is an opening shot in a drive to put the Soviet Union back together but they may be missing the point. Russian imperial ambitions are a lot older than communism and they just might not be dead. On the contrary they may have come roaring back to life last week. We could be about to reignite the Cold War. Nobody wants that, we certainly don’t and the Russians don’t either, but if they can re-annex Georgia with impunity as it appears they can, then what’s to stop them from taking another step, and another and another…This has to end somewhere.
Peter I became “the Great” by ending Swedish dominance in the Baltic region, taking over Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania, moving his capital to St. Petersburg, building a navy, and making Russia a power to be reckoned with in Northern Europe. Catherine I became “the Great” by extending the empire through the Ukraine and the Crimea, constructing a Black Sea fleet, and ensuring Russia’s status as one of the “Great Powers” up to WWI. Catherine’s ambitions extended through the Bosporus to the Mediterranean. She even named one of her grandsons Constantine in preparation for his installation on the ancient Roman throne. But Constantinople couldn’t be taken without a dominant naval presence. The great naval power of the day was Britain and the British Navy thwarted the plan, then and for another century and a quarter.
The Russian Empire all but collapsed at the end of WWI but through a series of bloody wars, and in the vacuum left by the defeat of Germany and the Ottomans, Lenin managed to salvage it. It almost fell again in WWII but Stalin survived, went on to extend the empire through most of Eastern Europe, and built a Super Power. Catherine would have been proud. Then in the 1980s the Warsaw pact and eventually the Soviet Union did fall apart in what was essentially an economic implosion. Most of us declared the Age of Empire finally over, dead in the ashes of Communism, Fascism, and Absolute Monarchy. We may have been wrong. Vladimir Putin may be about to prove us wrong.
Putin reasoned correctly that no one in the West would intervene militarily in defense of Georgia. Ten years ago economic leverage might have been a factor but not in this day of astronomical oil prices. We have very little leverage of any kind. We can’t embargo the oil and we demonstrated years ago in Korea and Vietnam we would rather lose a small war than risk a big one. So what do we do if Russia begins to pick off another former client state or two? Probably nothing so long as they aren’t members of NATO, which brings us to another problem. What if they are? Four current members are former Warsaw Pact countries. Another three are former Soviet Socialist Republics and had been Russian provinces since the days of Peter. Would we really go to war if Russia decided to reassert its influence in Latvia? I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin tested us on that. The European Union has a problem too. Of the 25 EU states, 8 came from the Communist Block and another two are in candidate status.
I don’t really expect a return to the Iron Curtain but the West has to draw a line somewhere and if it has to be a military one this could escalate out of control. That leaves economics as the only effective tool. The long term answer has to be economic integration. Moscow has to see the disruption of markets as a cost it is unwilling to pay.
Russia already wants to be a member of the WTO but with its new found oil wealth feels able to flex its muscles. Getting oil prices down to reasonable levels could be a big help.
Peter I became “the Great” by ending Swedish dominance in the Baltic region, taking over Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania, moving his capital to St. Petersburg, building a navy, and making Russia a power to be reckoned with in Northern Europe. Catherine I became “the Great” by extending the empire through the Ukraine and the Crimea, constructing a Black Sea fleet, and ensuring Russia’s status as one of the “Great Powers” up to WWI. Catherine’s ambitions extended through the Bosporus to the Mediterranean. She even named one of her grandsons Constantine in preparation for his installation on the ancient Roman throne. But Constantinople couldn’t be taken without a dominant naval presence. The great naval power of the day was Britain and the British Navy thwarted the plan, then and for another century and a quarter.
The Russian Empire all but collapsed at the end of WWI but through a series of bloody wars, and in the vacuum left by the defeat of Germany and the Ottomans, Lenin managed to salvage it. It almost fell again in WWII but Stalin survived, went on to extend the empire through most of Eastern Europe, and built a Super Power. Catherine would have been proud. Then in the 1980s the Warsaw pact and eventually the Soviet Union did fall apart in what was essentially an economic implosion. Most of us declared the Age of Empire finally over, dead in the ashes of Communism, Fascism, and Absolute Monarchy. We may have been wrong. Vladimir Putin may be about to prove us wrong.
Putin reasoned correctly that no one in the West would intervene militarily in defense of Georgia. Ten years ago economic leverage might have been a factor but not in this day of astronomical oil prices. We have very little leverage of any kind. We can’t embargo the oil and we demonstrated years ago in Korea and Vietnam we would rather lose a small war than risk a big one. So what do we do if Russia begins to pick off another former client state or two? Probably nothing so long as they aren’t members of NATO, which brings us to another problem. What if they are? Four current members are former Warsaw Pact countries. Another three are former Soviet Socialist Republics and had been Russian provinces since the days of Peter. Would we really go to war if Russia decided to reassert its influence in Latvia? I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin tested us on that. The European Union has a problem too. Of the 25 EU states, 8 came from the Communist Block and another two are in candidate status.
I don’t really expect a return to the Iron Curtain but the West has to draw a line somewhere and if it has to be a military one this could escalate out of control. That leaves economics as the only effective tool. The long term answer has to be economic integration. Moscow has to see the disruption of markets as a cost it is unwilling to pay.
Russia already wants to be a member of the WTO but with its new found oil wealth feels able to flex its muscles. Getting oil prices down to reasonable levels could be a big help.
posted by Onfoot at 9:51 AM
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