Recrudescence

I know. I had to look it up too. The word means to break out afresh or into renewed activity. I came across it yesterday in an op-ed piece claiming the surge has failed in Iraq and the war is still lost. The piece is loaded with sarcasm. That’s usually enough to make me stop reading but it’s been a while since I saw a piece quite that cynical so I read on. The writer cites several incidents over the past week as evidence that Iraq has again collapsed into chaos and the situation is hopeless. The point was so at odds with my own perception that I decided to look a little further. It’s easy to do. The pentagon is required by law to send quarterly reports to congress on Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq. The latest one is just out covering December through February. It is dry reading with no sarcasm but it is a methodical assessment of what’s happened lately on political reconciliation, infrastructure (water, power, etc.) the economy, level of violence, and so on. It’s a good source for anyone who wants a feel for the situation beyond what can be gotten from the nightly news. Iraq is still a violent place, a lot less so than at this time last year but a long way from an attractive vacation spot. They can’t keep the lights on 24 hours a day across most of the country and it will be years before they can. The economy is growing but from a dismal base. They desperately need foreign investment in the oil fields but no business man in his right mind would risk that kind on money until things get a lot more stable. Health care is in crisis in part because half the country’s doctors have left. Iran has promised to stop training and arming militants but they keep on doing just that. The government has made some progress on critical legislation but not nearly enough. The process is stalled on several fronts. What gains have been made are fragile and could be lost in a flash. There is a great deal more work to be done before anybody declares victory. That’s all there in the report. They aren’t painting a rosy picture. The picture isn’t all that bleak though. Conditions are difficult, not impossible, and far from the mayhem so many pundits describe. The surge was designed to allow coalition and Iraqi troops and police to establish a joint presence among the people and provide security and that is working. The Awakening that began last year in Anbar province has spread, now numbering 91000. Renamed Sons of Iraq it has been a big help despite realistic concerns about what happens next with all those volunteers. Children are in school. Politicians are slowly sorting through their differences. Government ministries are becoming more competent, less corrupt. Al Qaeda in Iraq is still active but under serious pressure with severely restricted capability. The Iraqi army is growing stronger and so are the police. The improvements we’ve seen since last summer may be fragile but they are real and they are progressing. General Petraeus is expected to recommend a moratorium on troop withdrawals once they reach the level they were at before the surge began. That’s probably best. The last thing we should want is to pull out so quickly Iraq collapses into the sort of chaos that brought the Taliban to power in Afghanistan. That’s looking less and less likely to happen. Even if Barack Obama becomes president and orders a mad rush for the exits, by that time internal Iraqi security forces may be strong enough to maintain order on their own. Frankly I doubt he’d really do it. A scene reminiscent of the Saigon embassy evacuation would be an enormous boost for Muslim extremists around the world and probably make him a one term president. He wouldn’t want that.