Tsar Vladimir
A brief review of Ukraine's special place in Russian history is in order. Russia was founded in the early ninth century by Vikings who explored the rivers and opened a trade route by barge from the North Sea to the Black Sea, with a short portage near what is now Moscow. Shorter by several thousand miles and much safer than the alternate route by sea, it expanded trade with the Romans enormously. A barge loaded with timber could float down to Constantinople, sell its cargo, and return with wine and slaves. A man could get rich on a single voyage.
The Russians established their capitol at Kiev in what is now Ukraine. Legend has it when St. Cyril took Christianity to Russia he baptized the entire population of Kiev in the Dnieper on a single day.
Kiev remained Russia's capitol until the middle of the thirteenth century when one of Gengis Kahn's grandsons came rampaging through with the Golden Horde. Russia was reduced to an insignificant rump state in the gloomy north. She slowly regained her footing under a series of Tsars until Peter the Great defeated a Swedish army, built his Capitol at St. Petersburg, and made Russia a major European power.
Catherine became the Great by regaining control of Ukraine all the way down to the Crimea, building a fortress and naval base at Sevastopol, and establishing the Black Sea Fleet, still based in Sevastopol today.
One of history's great royal processions occurred in 1787 when Catherine took her entire court by sleigh up the frozen Neva to Moscow, then down the Dnieper to Kiev where she waited for spring. When the ice melted she loaded them all onto barges and, with orchestras playing, floated down river to view her crown jewel. Her military commander, Prince Potemkin, had villages along the banks spruced up and peasant girls in traditional dress waving to the Tsarina. Cavalry could be seen exercising on the plain. It was quite a spectacle, and the origin of the term potemkin village.
Catherine's ambitions weren't finished. She had visions of taking Constantinople from the Ottomans and installing one of her grandsons as a new Roman Emperor. She named him Constantine for the purpose. Only the British Navy stood in her way. The British said no. That's what the Crimean War was about in the next century, the war that gave us Florence Nightingale and The Charge of the Light Brigade.
Ukraine and the Crimea remained part of the Russian Empire until the end of the Cold War. Of all the territory lost with the collapse of the Soviet Union they were the most strategically important, for the same reasons they were important in the eighteenth century, and in the ninth. Vladimir Putin wants them back. He has the Crimea. He wants Ukraine. It's a good bet he will get it.
The river trade route shouldn't be under estimated though today there are alternates, most notably the Rhine and Danube. A route through a single jurisdiction has advantages but the real prize remains the one that eluded Catherine. If I were the Turkish Prime Minister I would be nervous.
The British Navy thwarted Catherine. At the moment the U. S. Navy is probably an insurmountable obstacle for Putin. But things change. No one seriously expects us to intervene militarily to save Ukraine. Would we intervene to save Istanbul?
If Russians controlled the Bosporus they would have a chokehold on trading routes that would make them a super power again at a stroke, impossible to ignore or isolate. Vladimir Putin is an ambitious man. I think he has visions of becoming Vladimir the Great. If he names a grandson Constantine hold on to your hats.

